Gas Prices Above $4.15 is a Layup Given Oil Shock

Kalshi is pricing $4.15+ average gas prices at just 4.5% when oil (USO) just surged 12% in a single session and Iran conflict risk sits at 56%. Current US average gas prices are near $3.30, but the pass-through from a 12% oil spike combined with ongoing supply disruption risk makes the $4.15 threshold far more achievable than 4.5% implies. Buy YES on the $4.14-$4.17 Kalshi ladder — edge is 75-82 cents across multiple strikes. A Hormuz disruption or Iran escalation could move retail gas prices sharply within 2 weeks.