Gas Prices Above $4.15 Severely Underpriced Given Oil Surge

Kalshi gas price markets at $4.15-$4.18 are priced at 1.5-12% while the thesis implies 75-85% probability. Oil just surged +12% in a single day — pump prices lag crude by 1-2 weeks, making above-$4.15 gas almost inevitable. The Hormuz threat alone adds a structural risk premium. This is a timing arbitrage: the market hasn't caught up to the crude signal yet.