Institutional
Signals the venues don't compute.
Kalshi and Polymarket publish prices. We compute what the prices mean — implied yields, volatility regimes, information arrival rates, cross-venue mispricings, and distribution surface deviations against Fed data.
Signal
Information leakage detection
Before FOMC, CPI, and NFP releases, some markets start repricing days early. We measure exactly how much volatility is unexplained by the calendar — and flag it.
KXFED-26JUN-T4.25 VR 2.31 expected 0.89 residual +1.42
↑ repricing 2.6x faster than the calendar explains
FOMC in 8 days — but vol arrived now
KXCPI-26JUN-T2.5 VR 0.44 expected 0.52 residual -0.08
↑ quiet — no early informationResidual VR = realized volatility minus what upcoming catalysts predict. Positive residual before a scheduled event means someone is trading on information the rest of the market doesn't have yet.
Signal
Regime & volatility structure
Raw prices are noise. Derived indicators reveal which markets are being actively repriced, where information is arriving, and which are dead.
VR
Vol ratio — realized vs theoretical max. VR > 1 means the market is being repriced faster than random walk. Someone knows something.
IAR
Information arrival rate — meaningful price changes per hour. Separates active repricing from bid/ask bounce.
Adj IY
Risk-adjusted implied yield — penalizes dead markets and high friction. Filters the 2,000% IY contracts that are actually untradeable.
Residual VR
Volatility unexplained by upcoming catalysts. Positive residual VR before an FOMC meeting = potential information leakage.
Computed on ~5,200 markets every 15 minutes. Full indicator reference →
Distribution Surface
Atlanta Fed SOFR vs Kalshi KXFEDThe Atlanta Fed publishes rate probability distributions from institutional SOFR options. Kalshi publishes the same distributions from retail binary contracts. These are two independent reads on the same underlying — and they frequently disagree by tens of percentage points.
We align the bucket definitions and output per-bucket deviations daily. This is the prediction market equivalent of an implied-vs-realized volatility surface — and it exists nowhere else.
Currently live for Fed rates. CPI (Minneapolis Fed) and GDP/unemployment (Philadelphia Fed SPF) in development.
FOMC Jun 2026 — sample
Fed P(cut)=4.9% P(hike)=18.2%
Kalshi P(cut)=96.0% P(hike)=4.0%
Range Kalshi Fed Dev
350-375bps 82.0% 0.0% +82.0pp
325-350bps 6.0% 0.1% +5.9pp
500-525bps 0.0% 5.1% -5.1pp
475-500bps 0.0% 5.4% -5.4pp91pp divergence on cut probability. Either rapid macro repricing or systematic retail bias.
Delivery
API, daily export, or research dataset.
We work with a small number of partners.
Custom indicators, higher frequency, alternative delivery formats, specific analytical views — tell us what you need.