Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Polymarket, closing June 27, 2026. Senegal's 6¢ price reflects a heavily discounted probability despite the team's historical World Cup pedigree, with the extreme 8057% implied yield on the Yes side suggesting substantial mispricing or minimal conviction among traders.
Analysis
Senegal's 6¢ price reflects a heavily discounted probability despite the team's historical World Cup pedigree, with the extreme 8057% implied yield on the Yes side suggesting substantial mispricing or minimal conviction among traders. The market has declined sharply from 8¢ seven days ago while maintaining relatively thin liquidity at $17.4K open interest against $585K daily volume, indicating price discovery challenges in a thin order book. With 71 days to expiry and a 2¢ spread, the neutral regime score and elevated cliff risk index (16) suggest this market could experience volatility as the tournament approaches and group composition becomes clearer.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x0174a32ce50b11c793acc6a643e1d583c99fa52016a319eab4052f9a59f4eb18 yes 100