Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?

The 39¢ price implies only a 39% probability of Bitcoin touching $45,000 over the next 259 days, despite the asset's 195% realized volatility suggesting substantial downside risk is plausible. The extreme 220.5% implied yield on "Yes" positions and notably elevated 1.37 volatility ratio indicate potential underpricing of tail risk, though the 7-day decline from 44¢ to 39¢ suggests recent market skepticism about a dip to that level. With $45.9M open interest and moderate $7.8M daily volume, liquidity is reasonable but the low 2¢ spread and neutral regime (0.5 score) suggest the market is fairly balanced without obvious directional conviction.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

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Regime

Trade