Will President Trump sign 6 pieces of legislation into law in April?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $667k open interest, and the 27¢ spread reflects pricing uncertainty rather than active trading. The Yes side offers an astronomical 9,408% implied yield with only 14 days to expiration, suggesting the 25¢ price may be artificially depressed by thin order books rather than genuine bearishness on Trump signing six bills in April. The sharp 7-day decline from 32¢ to 22¢ combined with a 3,320% realized volatility and high cliff risk (4/5) indicates this is a speculative, illiquid position vulnerable to sharp repricing on any legislative news.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of pieces of legislation that are signed into law between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President. Legislation that becomes law without a signature while Congress remains in session, or becomes law through veto override, as well as Presidential pocket vetoes that expire, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the White House (https://www.whitehouse.gov/), Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Regime

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