Will the Democratic Party win the TX-08 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $23,476 in open interest, suggesting trapped positions or stale pricing. The 9-cent price implies Democrats have only a 9% chance in this heavily Republican district, which aligns with historical voting patterns in TX-08, though the astronomical 1,839% implied yield on the Yes side indicates severe mispricing or distressed sellers. With 201 days to expiration and a high cliff risk index of 10, this contract carries significant tail risk and should be approached cautiously given the illiquidity and potential for sharp repricing closer to the November 2026 election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade