Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) hit $45,000 (HIGH) in December?

The NDX $45,000 target carries an extremely depressed 6¢ price despite a massive 2216% implied yield on the YES side, suggesting severe mispricing or that traders are pricing in near-zero probability of a ~40% rally from current levels by end-2026. The market shows critical illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 7¢ spread, while the 7-day price collapse from 10¢ to 6¢ indicates recent capitulation selling that may have overshot given the 258-day timeframe and neutral volatility regime. The elevated 4.41 vol ratio and 16 cliff risk index flag potential tail-risk dynamics, though the $3.6M open interest suggests some conviction holders remain despite the distressed pricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/.

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