Will the Democratic Party win the TX-03 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1,334% implied yield on the Yes side despite zero 24-hour volume, suggesting the 12¢ price reflects stale information rather than active trading conviction. TX-03 is a heavily Republican district (Cook PVI R+14), making a 12% Democratic probability appear disconnected from historical voting patterns, though the high realized volatility (563%) and elevated cliff risk index (7) indicate this contract has experienced sharp repricing events. With 201 days to expiration and only $13,030 in open interest, liquidity is thin enough that any meaningful position could move the price substantially.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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