Will the Republican Party win the MD-07 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 6¢ Republican price in a heavily Democratic district (MD-07 is currently held by Democrat Kweisi Mfume), generating an implausible 2,859% implied yield on the Yes side despite zero 24-hour volume. The $20,222 open interest and 1¢ spread suggest illiquidity typical of low-probability long-tail markets, where the asymmetric payoff structure inflates theoretical returns rather than reflecting genuine edge. With 200 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a speculative position rather than an efficiently priced contract, warranting caution around the reliability of these probability estimates.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade