Will the Republican Party win the IL-06 House seat?

The Republican contract at 6¢ reflects an extremely asymmetric risk profile, with a 2,859% implied yield for YES holders against just 11.6% for NO, suggesting the market is pricing in a heavily Democratic-favored district but with meaningful tail risk. The 778% realized volatility and 16 Cliff Risk Index indicate this market experiences sharp, binary-type moves despite low absolute price levels, while the $139.7K daily volume against $17.8M open interest suggests liquidity constraints relative to positioning. With 200 days to expiry and a recent decline from 7¢ to 6¢, this appears to be a speculative contrarian bet on a Republican upset in what is likely a safe Democratic seat.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade