Will the Democratic Party win the TX-16 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $26.7K open interest, suggesting the 93¢ price may not reflect true consensus given the thin order book. The massive 2416.7% implied yield on the "No" side is a classic sign of an artificially low price on a deeply out-of-the-money position—likely just a few stale limit orders at the extremes rather than genuine market conviction. With 201 days until expiry and a neutral regime score, the 13.7% yield on the heavily-favored "Yes" side appears reasonable for a Democratic-leaning district, but traders should be cautious about the cliff risk index of 13 and verify this pricing against recent polling or cross-check against other prediction platforms before committing capital.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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