What is the current probability for "Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 12¢ (12% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 31, 2026. 253 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1057.2% and 19.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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12¢

Bid/Ask 12/12¢·Spread 0¢·Vol $10,701.556·OI $70,321.55·Closes Dec 31, 2026·253d remaining

0x09bd898af149ff142f72abd30709dadf4fedafcce3b00ef37fd62a733063d7c9

7-day price79 snapshots · 118 regime

16¢12¢ current

Apr 810¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1057.2%

IY (No) 19.7%

Adj IY 529%

CRI 7

LAS 0.00

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1057.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	19.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	529%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	7	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
LAS	0.00	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

0¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 7:39:49 PM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 7:38:17 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x09bd898af149ff142f72abd30709dadf4fedafcce3b00ef37fd62a733063d7c9 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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