Will US withdraw from NATO by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 5% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
5%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$849
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
196 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will US withdraw from NATO by
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?: December 31
0x09bd89…d7c9
Analysis
This market estimates a 10% chance the United States withdraws from NATO by a specified deadline. NATO membership is formalized through treaty, requiring congressional action and formal notification to withdraw. The probability reflects the low baseline likelihood of such a major institutional shift, though it acknowledges the possibility of significant political changes. Factors that could increase this probability include further deterioration of US-European relations, shifts in burden-sharing disputes, or major changes in US foreign policy leadership. Factors that could decrease it include strengthening of NATO during potential security crises or demonstrated allied commitment to mutual defense obligations. Key upcoming events include NATO summit meetings, European defense spending announcements, and any statements from US leadership regarding alliance commitments. The current low probability suggests markets view institutional continuity and alliance structures as relatively stable despite periodic political tensions.
- ›NATO withdrawal requires formal US government action including congressional authorization and treaty notification, creating multiple institutional checkpoints
- ›Current US leadership statements and recent policy direction toward NATO will be observable indicators of withdrawal likelihood
- ›Any NATO Article 5 invocation or major security crisis involving member states would likely reduce withdrawal probability sharply
- ›European defense spending increases and burden-sharing agreements could influence US commitment levels and political willingness to withdraw
- ›Scheduled NATO summits and defense ministerial meetings in 2026 will provide concrete data on alliance cohesion and US engagement level
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (5% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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