Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?

Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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5¢
Bid/Ask 5/5¢·Spread 0¢·Vol $277.17·OI $7,379.072·Closes Dec 31, 2026·253d remaining
0x0a95717208bdb1c1167877eb5b19085494f68ed9b074d8dfc7d76b549fcbe7bb
7-day price51 snapshots · 4 regime
5¢5¢ current
Apr 83¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2739.5%
IY (No) 7.6%
Adj IY 1370%
CRI 19
Overround 1.4%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)2739.5%
IY (No)7.6%
Adj IY1370%
CRI19
Overround1.4%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.432
Spread
0¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:25:24 PM
Observability mediumEvent type data_release
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x0a95717208bdb1c1167877eb5b19085494f68ed9b074d8dfc7d76b549fcbe7bb yes 100

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