Will Michaelangelo Hamilton be the Republican nominee for Senate in Florida?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Michaelangelo Hamilton be the Republican nominee for Senate in Florida?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing August 18, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $13k open interest, suggesting the 4¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $13k open interest, suggesting the 4¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus. The astronomical 7126.5% implied yield on "Yes" indicates the market is pricing in near-zero probability for Michaelangelo Hamilton as the Republican nominee, though the high cliff risk index (24) suggests significant uncertainty around resolution mechanics or candidate viability. With 123 days until expiry and no recent price movement, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal trading activity rather than an actively discovered market price.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Florida. If no 2026 Florida Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x0a9c99dad5dfcd8c5473899634102e818cb2bcb91d623b0b514f821348f85c2d yes 100