Will Deaglan McEachern win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Deaglan McEachern win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing September 8, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $11k open interest, suggesting the 4¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus but rather stale positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $11k open interest, suggesting the 4¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus but rather stale positioning. The astronomical 6084% implied yield on the Yes side indicates the market is pricing in near-zero probability for McEachern, though the 2914% realized volatility and high cliff risk (24) suggest past price swings have been dramatic relative to the thin liquidity. With 144 days to expiry and an information arrival rate of only 0.5 events per hour, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal real-time price discovery.
Also on kalshi at 3¢(Δ 0¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of New Hampshire, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 New Hampshire Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New Hampshire Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x0d63d3c455553636e58b3a9f5668cab1886d5ded01f126779bcf822820ced174 yes 100