Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
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sf trade 0x0e36be087a0e811d5b9af87fb39edf62521ecf73de6d73c56447a86ca7f1842b yes 100