GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?

The market is pricing in a 90% probability of GPT-5.5 release by April 30, 2026, with only 10 days to expiry, yet shows extreme asymmetry in implied yields (495% for Yes vs. 26,615% for No), suggesting the No side is dramatically underpriced relative to tail risk. The 205% realized volatility and modest 7-day price climb from 86¢ to 88¢ indicate recent consolidation near the high end, but the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 7 combined with $5.8M daily volume and tight 3¢ spread reflects genuine uncertainty about whether OpenAI will meet this specific naming/release window before the deadline. The 1.0 info arrivals per hour signal active news flow, making this a high-stakes binary with potential for sharp repricing if any official announcement emerges.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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