Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 29¢ reflects a heavily Republican-favored race in TX-23, with the Yes side offering an exceptional 445% implied yield despite substantial 389% realized volatility, suggesting significant uncertainty beneath the low baseline probability. The market has declined 6 cents over seven days amid a neutral regime with modest information arrival (1.4/h), while the 4¢ spread and $17.6k open interest indicate reasonable liquidity for a district-level race with over 200 days to expiration. The 1.91 vol ratio and elevated cliff risk warrant caution, as the extreme yield asymmetry may reflect either genuine mispricing or tail-risk compensation for a potentially competitive race.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade