Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by April 30?

This market has collapsed 39% over seven days to 14¢, suggesting declining expectations of an Iranian strike on Abqaiq by month-end, yet the extreme implied yield of 16,314% on the Yes side indicates severe illiquidity with only $9.5K open interest and zero 24-hour volume. With just 14 days to expiry and a realized volatility of 1,086%, the market is pricing in binary tail risk, but the combination of zero recent trading activity and a cliff risk index of 6 suggests this contract may struggle to find liquidity for exit positions near resolution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.

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