Will Shelly deZevallos be the Republican Nominee for TX-38?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $10.2M open interest, suggesting the large position is trapped or speculative rather than actively traded. The 4¢ price implies a 22,075% annualized yield if deZevallos wins, an absurd figure driven by the combination of low price and near-term resolution (40 days to a March 3, 2026 primary that has likely already occurred or is imminent). The 1,949% realized volatility and wide 6¢ spread indicate this market is either mispriced or reflects genuine uncertainty about nomination dynamics in TX-38, but the lack of price discovery makes it unreliable for actual probability assessment.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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