TX-38 Republican Primary Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
3%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$49
1 contracts
Closes
May 26, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
TX-38 Republican Primary Winner: Barrett McNabb
TX-38 Republican Primary Winner: Barrett McNabb
0xdbd224…3b23
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that a specific candidate wins the Republican primary for Texas's 38th Congressional District. The 95% price suggests a heavily favored frontrunner with substantial structural advantages or polling leads, while the 5% allocated to alternatives indicates some residual uncertainty. Primary probabilities of this magnitude typically reflect either frontrunner advantages from fundraising, endorsements, or polling, balanced against the inherent unpredictability of primary turnout and late-breaking campaign events. The primary election itself—scheduled for a date voters can verify through Texas election records—serves as the hard resolution point. Between now and voting day, shifts in this probability would likely track candidate spending data, field poll releases, endorsement announcements, or turnout indicators specific to the district.
- ›Current polling or publicly available vote intention data in TX-38, which would need to substantially shift to justify significant probability movements
- ›Fundraising and cash-on-hand disparities between the frontrunner and alternatives, as measurable through FEC filings
- ›Local or district-specific endorsements from party establishment figures, which historically correlate with primary performance
- ›Voter turnout expectations for the specific primary date, since low-turnout scenarios can increase uncertainty around frontrunner performance
- ›Any disqualifying events affecting the frontrunner's candidacy or viability between the current date and election day
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.