Will the Republican Party win the CO-04 House seat?

This CO-04 market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $15.5K open interest, suggesting the 65¢ Republican price may not reflect true consensus given the 6¢ spread and extraordinarily high realized volatility of 793%. The No side's 324.6% implied yield is unusually elevated relative to the Yes side's 102.7%, indicating significant mispricing or hedging demand for a Democratic outcome in this traditionally competitive district with 200 days to expiration.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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