Will SpaceX raise between $60B and $70B in its IPO?

This market is pricing in only a 9% probability of a $60-70B IPO raise, down from 12¢ a week ago, suggesting declining conviction in this specific valuation band despite no recent volume ($0 in 24h). The extremely wide 12¢ spread combined with just $4,167 in open interest indicates severe illiquidity, making the 9¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. The astronomical 1238% realized volatility and cliff risk index of 10 suggest this is a highly unstable market vulnerable to sharp repricing on any SpaceX IPO announcement, though the neutral regime and low information arrival rate (0.5/h) indicate the market is currently dormant.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by SpaceX in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing. The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered. Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered. If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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