Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting?

This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (96%) of a rate cut, with the price climbing 2 cents over the past week as the April 24 meeting approaches in just 4 days. The massive 100,000% implied yield on the "No" outcome signals severe tail risk, though the tight 1-cent spread and $1.24M in 24-hour volume suggest reasonable liquidity for position entry/exit. The elevated Cliff Risk Index of 24 and approaching expiry warrant caution, as any unexpected hawkish signals from the Bank of Russia could trigger sharp repricing in the final days.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s April meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its April 24, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13 This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their April 24, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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