What is the current probability for "Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 16¢ (16% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 754.0% and 27.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027.

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16¢

Bid/Ask 12/20¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $1,032·OI $2,344.724·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

0x144a0a6d2b65893c2c961952049075f40c349752376de16c11048b351cb939c3

7-day price59 snapshots · 10 regime

24¢16¢ current

Apr 814¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nansen (https://www.nansen.ai/) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Nansen, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 754.0%

IY (No) 27.4%

Adj IY 754%

CRI 5

RV 564%

VR 2.24

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	754.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	27.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	754%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	564%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.24	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

8¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:21:19 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x144a0a6d2b65893c2c961952049075f40c349752376de16c11048b351cb939c3 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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