Will the Democratic Party win the NC-07 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 20¢ reflects a heavily Republican-favored district, yet the 727.6% implied yield on the Yes side suggests significant underpricing relative to historical Democratic performance or polling data—this extreme yield warrants scrutiny of whether the market is accurately calibrated. With zero 24-hour volume despite $26.5M open interest and a tight 1¢ spread, liquidity appears frozen despite the long 201-day runway to the November 2026 election, indicating limited recent conviction from traders. The 3¢ price increase over seven days and moderate 4 Cliff Risk Index suggest the market may be pricing in late-cycle volatility, though the neutral regime score (0.341) indicates no strong directional momentum currently.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade