Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?

Gold would need to drop roughly 13% from current levels to hit $3,800 by end-June 2026, yet the market prices this at just 7% probability with an extreme 6,560% annualized yield on the Yes side—suggesting either deep skepticism about such a sharp decline or potential mispricing given gold's recent volatility (1,081% realized vol). The 7-cent price has fallen sharply from 12 cents over seven days despite 74 days to expiration and $19.3M open interest, indicating recent selling pressure as gold likely rallied, though the 1.88 vol ratio and elevated cliff risk (13) warrant caution on the sustainability of this low price.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or below the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.

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