Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This extreme-tail-risk market shows a 5% probability pricing Jerome Powell's incarceration by end-2026, generating an eye-popping 2,687.8% implied yield on the Yes side despite zero 24-hour volume, suggesting minimal liquidity and likely wide bid-ask spreads beyond the stated 1¢.
Analysis
This extreme-tail-risk market shows a 5% probability pricing Jerome Powell's incarceration by end-2026, generating an eye-popping 2,687.8% implied yield on the Yes side despite zero 24-hour volume, suggesting minimal liquidity and likely wide bid-ask spreads beyond the stated 1¢. The $17.1M open interest paired with no recent trading activity and a neutral regime score (0.5) indicates this is primarily a speculative/novelty position rather than a serious probability assessment, with the massive yield reflecting the illiquidity penalty rather than genuine market conviction. The 19 Cliff Risk Index and 258-day timeframe suggest concentration of positions near expiration, making this vulnerable to sharp repricing if any material news emerges.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x16dc4d5f7cc8088cfa333af21de0f0401a965f35bae8c4f273a1ecde0627bf9f yes 100