Will Alex Pelbath be the Republican Nominee for SC-01?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite nearly $10k open interest, suggesting trapped positions rather than active trading. The astronomical 1863% implied yield on the "Yes" side combined with 2833% realized volatility and a 7.54 vol ratio indicates severe mispricing or highly speculative positioning, though the 27¢ price itself appears reasonable for a non-frontrunner candidate in a crowded primary. With only 53 days to resolution and a cliff risk index of 3, the market is approaching expiry with minimal price discovery—the 2¢ decline over seven days suggests weak conviction, and the 5¢ spread is substantial relative to the current price.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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