Will the Democratic Party win the NC-14 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 20¢ reflects a heavily Republican-favored district, with the implied probability suggesting Democrats face substantial headwinds in NC-14. The extreme 727.6% implied yield on the Yes side indicates significant mispricing potential if Democrats outperform expectations, though the low 24-hour volume of $288 against $21.2M open interest raises liquidity concerns that could amplify slippage on larger positions. With 201 days to expiration and only a 1¢ spread, this market appears fairly efficient despite the modest trading activity, though the neutral regime score (0.568) suggests limited directional conviction in current price discovery.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade