Will the Republican Party win the TX-32 House seat?

The Republican contract has surged 16 cents over seven days to 78¢, reflecting strong conviction in GOP retention of this Texas seat, though the extreme 608% implied yield on the "No" side and 6.60 volatility ratio suggest the market is pricing in significant tail risk or potential mispricing. With zero 24-hour volume despite $10.6M open interest and a wide 6¢ spread, liquidity is severely constrained, raising concerns about execution risk for larger positions and potentially inflating the yield figures. The 485% realized volatility and 2.4 info arrivals per hour indicate this market remains highly reactive to political developments, making the current 78% probability potentially unstable as we approach the 201-day expiration window.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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