Will the Republican Party win the NV-04 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $8.7M open interest, suggesting the $8.7M figure may be stale or the market is effectively frozen. The 13¢ price implies Republicans have only a 13% chance in what is presumably a Democratic-leaning district, but the astronomical 1215% implied yield on the Yes side combined with 987% realized volatility and a 7.0 cliff risk index indicates severe mispricing or data anomalies rather than a genuine trading opportunity. With 201 days to expiration and no recent price discovery, this market appears unreliable for prediction purposes.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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