Will the Democratic Party win the FL-20 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity despite a substantial $15.8k open interest, with zero 24-hour volume indicating no recent trading activity and a concerning 1-cent spread that masks true price discovery. The 90-cent price implies a heavily favored Democratic outcome, yet the asymmetric implied yields—20.3% for Yes versus 1,642.7% for No—suggest the No position is severely mispriced or represents a liquidity trap rather than genuine market sentiment. With 200 days to expiration and a high cliff risk index of 9, this market appears to be a stale quote on a low-liquidity position that warrants caution before entry.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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