Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

This market prices an extremely low probability (3%) for Putin's removal within 74 days, yet displays an extraordinary 15,958% implied yield on "Yes" positions—a massive risk-reward asymmetry typical of tail-risk bets. The $83.7M open interest dwarfs the $1.8K daily volume, indicating illiquidity and potential difficulty exiting positions at quoted prices. With a Cliff Risk Index of 32 and zero price movement over seven days, this appears to be a speculative long-tail hedge rather than a genuine probability assessment, though the neutral regime score suggests no imminent catalyst is priced in.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade