Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026. This extremely low-probability market is pricing Powell's federal indictment at just 3%, yet the Yes side carries an extraordinary 15,945% implied yield—a massive risk-reward asymmetry typical of tail-risk bets with minimal liquidity ($13.5M open interest against $175K daily volume).
Analysis
This extremely low-probability market is pricing Powell's federal indictment at just 3%, yet the Yes side carries an extraordinary 15,945% implied yield—a massive risk-reward asymmetry typical of tail-risk bets with minimal liquidity ($13.5M open interest against $175K daily volume). The 74-day timeframe and zero bid-ask spread mask substantial cliff risk (index of 32), suggesting the market may struggle to find equilibrium if sentiment shifts, though the recent uptick from 2¢ to 3¢ indicates modest accumulation of conviction among contrarian traders.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x1b89a207ec7cd01f825b5470222b45a4437325bc97bbc50b55a038b29ff7eb5d yes 100