Will the Republican Party win the FL-01 House seat?

The Republican contract is priced at an extreme 93¢ with a massive 2,424% implied yield on the No side, indicating severe mispricing or illiquidity-driven distortion rather than genuine uncertainty about FL-01's Republican lean. The $18.9M open interest against just $2,430 in 24-hour volume suggests the market is largely frozen with few recent trades, making the price potentially unreliable; the 1¢ spread provides minimal arbitrage opportunity to correct this imbalance. With 200 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 13, this market appears to be a liquidity trap where the extreme No-side yield reflects the improbability of finding a counterparty rather than a real betting opportunity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade