Will the Democratic Party win the SC-07 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $15,882.70 in open interest, suggesting trapped positions rather than active trading. The 11¢ price implies only an 11% Democratic win probability in what is historically a safe Republican district, but the astronomical 1,476.8% implied yield on the Yes side indicates severe mispricing or a liquidity crisis rather than genuine market conviction. With 200 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 8, this appears to be a distressed market where the low price may reflect forced selling or abandoned positions rather than fundamental political analysis.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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