What is the current probability for "Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 69¢ (69% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 64.5% and 319.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 69% probability that Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 69¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027.

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69¢

Bid/Ask 64/73¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $0·OI $767.443·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

0x1e4791012e91ecf89a67dacb32d9e9b634c1ac1487ed05ea0fba302c9b229c9a

7-day price518 snapshots · 3 regime

85¢69¢ current

Apr 867¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tread officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Tread (https://www.tread.fi/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 64.5%

IY (No) 319.6%

Adj IY 320%

CRI 2

RV 291%

VR 3.86

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	64.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	319.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	320%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	291%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.86	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.2/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

9¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:16:31 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x1e4791012e91ecf89a67dacb32d9e9b634c1ac1487ed05ea0fba302c9b229c9a yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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