Will the Republican Party win the OK-02 House seat?

The market is pricing Republicans as overwhelming favorites at 93¢ with extremely thin volume of just $2.14 in 24-hour trading, suggesting minimal liquidity despite $26.8M in open interest. The No side exhibits an extraordinary 2434% implied yield, indicating the market is severely mispricing the tail risk of a Democratic upset—this asymmetry is unusual for a race this heavily favored and warrants scrutiny about whether the 93¢ price reflects true conviction or simply reflects Oklahoma's strong Republican lean in this district. With 199 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 13, there's meaningful time for sentiment shifts, though the 1¢ spread and neutral regime suggest the market is currently stable despite the yield distortion.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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