Will Joe Mitchell be the Republican Nominee for IA-02?
Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that Will Joe Mitchell be the Republican Nominee for IA-02?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Polymarket, closing June 2, 2026. Joe Mitchell commands an extremely high 95¢ price with just 46 days to the June 2, 2026 primary, reflecting near-certainty of his Republican nomination for IA-02.
Analysis
Joe Mitchell commands an extremely high 95¢ price with just 46 days to the June 2, 2026 primary, reflecting near-certainty of his Republican nomination for IA-02. The massive 12,427% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity on the downside, though the tight 1¢ spread and $47,998 daily volume suggest the market is reasonably liquid at current levels. With a Cliff Risk Index of 16 and the market closing exactly on primary day, this contract carries significant execution risk and should resolve within days of the vote.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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sf trade 0x1faa20762d1c728eabfa1fa67a527424993cb4d26e824e1bf05154ffa1dee1b1 yes 100