What is the current probability for "Will Betmoar launch a token by March 31, 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 41¢ (41% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2028. 619 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Betmoar launch a token by March 31, 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 78.1% and 44.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Betmoar launch a token by March 31, 2027?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Betmoar launch a token by March 31, 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 41% probability that Will Betmoar launch a token by March 31, 2027?. This contract trades at 41¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2028. This market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 2,344% and a vol ratio of 29.19, reflecting significant uncertainty around Betmoar's token launch timeline.

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41¢

Bid/Ask 15/67¢·Spread 52¢·Vol $0·OI $7,261.011·Closes Jan 1, 2028·619d remaining

0x20e7f138b0bcba2503d04b2a1c1f8517305f3bfb908ea1a99ec926d9b98709f9

7-day price1486 snapshots · 3 regime

74¢42¢ current

Apr 1232¢Apr 21

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 2,344% and a vol ratio of 29.19, reflecting significant uncertainty around Betmoar's token launch timeline. The price has collapsed 34 percentage points over seven days (from 68¢ to 42¢), suggesting recent negative information or sentiment shift, yet the 58¢ spread and minimal $12 daily volume indicate dangerously low liquidity that could amplify price swings further. The asymmetric implied yields (77.4% for Yes vs. 44.1% for No) combined with the 625-day runway until expiry create a high-risk environment where the market may struggle to efficiently price this binary outcome.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Betmoar officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only an official token launched by Betmoar will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Betmoar (https://x.com/betmoardotfun), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 78.1%

IY (No) 44.5%

Adj IY 78%

CRI 1

RV 2310%

VR 27.63

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	78.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	44.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	78%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	2310%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	27.63	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	7.4/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	2.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

52¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:20:55 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x20e7f138b0bcba2503d04b2a1c1f8517305f3bfb908ea1a99ec926d9b98709f9 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →