Will one person dissent the April Fed decision?

The market is pricing a 63% probability of dissent at the April 2026 Fed decision, up 6 cents over seven days, with notably asymmetric yields favoring the "No" side at 4,889% versus 1,686% for "Yes"—suggesting the market may be underpricing dissent risk despite historical precedent for occasional FOMC dissents. With only 13 days to expiry and relatively thin liquidity ($32.3k in 24h volume against $1.9M open interest), the 2-cent spread is reasonable, though the extreme realized volatility of 471% and cliff risk index of 2 indicate significant uncertainty heading into the April 28-29 announcement. The high information arrival rate of 2.8 events per hour suggests active repricing as new Fed communications emerge before the decision.

Resolution rules

The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for April 28-29, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on April 29, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET. This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade