Will London have between 20-30mm of precipitation in April?

This market displays extreme mispricing with a 7¢ price implying only 7% probability for a 10mm precipitation range in London during April, yet the Yes side offers a staggering 35,255% annualized yield—a clear signal of either severe undervaluation or structural distress. The 10¢ bid-ask spread is notably wide relative to the 7¢ midpoint, and the dramatic 7-day price collapse from 20¢ to 8¢ combined with 7,295% realized volatility suggests recent panic selling rather than fundamental repricing. With just 14 days until expiry and only $170k in 24h volume against $1.6M open interest, liquidity is thin, making the extreme yield potentially illusory given execution risk.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in April, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released. If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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