Will Jocelyn Benson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Democratic primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 92% probability that Will Jocelyn Benson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Democratic primary election?. This contract trades at 92¢ on Polymarket, closing August 4, 2026. Jocelyn Benson is priced at a commanding 85¢ with exceptionally thin liquidity ($11,339 open interest and only $139.72 in 24-hour volume), suggesting limited conviction despite the high probability.
Analysis
Jocelyn Benson is priced at a commanding 85¢ with exceptionally thin liquidity ($11,339 open interest and only $139.72 in 24-hour volume), suggesting limited conviction despite the high probability. The market has experienced dramatic volatility (680% realized vol) and a sharp 6-point price decline over seven days, while the "No" side carries an extreme 1,898% implied yield, indicating the market may be pricing in significant tail risk of a primary upset or late-breaking candidate entry. With 109 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 6, this appears to be a low-liquidity market where modest trading activity could drive outsized price swings.
Also on kalshi at 87¢(Δ +5¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Michigan, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Michigan Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0x21ab0908882e00031041d17716d3c6c56d93dfc5f460c551c33fec2ea33ae112 yes 100