Will the Democratic Party win the IL-08 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with the No position offering a 1643% implied yield versus just 20.3% for Yes, despite Democrats priced at 90% to win IL-08—a stark mismatch suggesting the No side is severely undervalued or illiquid. The $0 24-hour volume and $15.3M open interest indicate this is a dead market with no recent price discovery, making the quoted prices potentially stale. With a Cliff Risk Index of 9 and 200 days to expiry, this appears to be a liquidity trap where the extreme No yield reflects minimal trading rather than genuine market conviction about a Democratic upset.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade