Will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close at >$36,000 in December?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 77¢ spread despite 258 days to expiration, suggesting the 41¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus. The 195% implied yield on the "Yes" side is extraordinarily high relative to the 2-year timeframe, indicating either severe mispricing or that traders are pricing in substantial tail risk that NDX won't reach $36,000 by end-2026 (currently around $20,500-21,000 range, requiring ~70% upside). The realized volatility of 1021% and vol ratio of 7.75 are anomalously elevated, likely reflecting the illiquid microstructure rather than true market expectations, making this an unreliable prediction market at present.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."

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