Will the Democratic Party win the GA-09 House seat?

The Democratic position in GA-09 is priced at an extreme 9¢ with a staggering 1,845% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe mispricing or very low conviction in this deep-red district. With zero 24-hour volume despite $17.2M open interest and 200 days to expiry, the market appears illiquid and potentially abandoned, making the quoted price unreliable for actual execution. The 10/10 cliff risk index combined with the neutral regime score indicates this contract carries significant tail risk and should be approached cautiously until closer to the November 2026 election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade