Will Jon Bonck be the Republican Nominee for TX-38?
Prediction markets currently give a 92% probability that Will Jon Bonck be the Republican Nominee for TX-38?. This contract trades at 92¢ on Polymarket, closing May 26, 2026. The market is pricing Jon Bonck as an overwhelming favorite at 91¢, but the extreme 9,300% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe illiquidity and potential mispricing of tail risk—typical for low-volume markets with just $29.18 in 24-hour trading.
Analysis
The market is pricing Jon Bonck as an overwhelming favorite at 91¢, but the extreme 9,300% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe illiquidity and potential mispricing of tail risk—typical for low-volume markets with just $29.18 in 24-hour trading. The 2¢ price decline over seven days combined with a high cliff risk index of 10 and a neutral regime suggests uncertainty may be building despite the consensus pricing, particularly with the Republican primary just 7 months away and only $10.3M in open interest. This market warrants caution given the thin liquidity and the gap between the dominant Yes position and the theoretical value of a competitive primary race.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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sf trade 0x226fb2b3a531a7f09ce74c6459f3bc85963c781a1282c38e38a30d6047fe6fb2 yes 100